How to win the game Eagle or tails

How to win the game "Eagle or tails"

Imagine that someone is challenging you in the “heads and tails” game. The rules are simple - each of you predicts a sequence of three throws, either heads or tails. Then you throw a coin until one of your sequences is made up. If your opponent’s sequence appears first, you give him $ 20.

If the first is your combination - his twenty is yours. If you both play fair, it seems that your chances of winning are 50 to 50, isn't it?

And that's not always the case. See ...

Even if you do not have coins with a secret, mirrors or a magnet, and the probability of each throw is really 50 to 50, you can still manipulate the game. Your opponent has a 87% chance to beat you, and the secret is to make your move second. Suppose a person who made the first move, called: "an eagle, an eagle and tails." The task of the second player is to memorize and complete two steps:

Your first name should be opposite to the second name of the opponent. In this case - tails.

Your second and third names must match the first two names of the opponent. In this case - an eagle, an eagle.

If you follow these rules, your chances of winning will always be higher, sometimes slightly, and sometimes much more than your opponent. If you do not believe us, try it yourself and see for yourself. This is called a “non-transitive game”. That is, every choice you can make is either better or worse than any other possible option. This is practically the same as the game “Stone, scissors, paper”, only in this case, making the first move, you tell your opponent if you choose a stone, paper or scissors before he makes his choice. So do not go first. By following the above rules, you will almost always be able to turn everything to your advantage.

Use!

And here is another interesting example. How do you think, how unique is the shuffled deck of cards?

Suppose you are dealing cards in a poker game. At the same time, we’ll clarify: you are an experienced handler, and not one of those people who just clumsily twist the cards in their hands like children. You skillfully shuffle the cards, throw them from hand to hand, juggle, and so on.d., until, ultimately, do not come to the conclusion that the cards are arranged in a completely random order.

What are the chances that the configuration of the deck you are holding now is the same as the one you mixed last time? One chance out of 1000? One in 10,000? Do not forget that we have only 52 cards.

Now you have to feel special, because it is almost certain that the configuration of the deck you hold in your hand has never been created by any person in the entire history of mankind on this Earth, and in any of its parallel Universes. You are now holding in your hands something that will never be created again, from now until the very end of time.

Agree, it is unlikely that 52 cards is a lot. But to try to count the number of possible combinations of these cards, you will need more than one free evening. The total number of statistical combinations of a deck of 52 cards is what is known as “52 factorial”, or “52!”.

Completely this number looks like this:

80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277, 824,000,000,000,000.

Imagine that “if every star in our galaxy had a trillion planets, and every planet would have a trillion people, and every person would have a trillion decks of cards, and they would shuffle the cards 1000 times a second and have done so since the Big Bang , it is possible, only now the order would be repeated. ”

If it blows up your brain, think of it this way: there are only 52 cards, but the alphabet has mail in half the letters. And now think about the number of books written by combining these letters. There are a lot of them.

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  • How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails

    How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails How to win the game Eagle or tails